Estimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires
نویسندگان
چکیده
In 2002. there were 88,458 fires reported on federal lands. These fires burned 6,937,584 acres and 2,381 structures costing taxpayers $1.6 billion for fire suppression. On average, 4,215,089 acres of federal lands burn annually. Forecasting wildland fire risk (occurrence and size) is important to fire managers who desire to know the risks of severe events well in advance of their happening. In this talk, we discuss the estimation of a probability model for forecasting fire risk one month in advance. The model uses 25 years of historic fire data on federal lands in addition to weather and climatological variables.
منابع مشابه
Proceeding of Joint Statistical Meeting, August 2005, Minneapolis, MN Estimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires
In 2002. there were 88,458 fires reported on federal lands. These fires burned 6,937,584 acres and 2,381 structures costing taxpayers $1.6 billion for fire suppression. On average, 4,215,089 acres of federal lands burn annually. Forecasting wildland fire risk (occurrence and size) is important to fire managers who desire to know the risks of severe events well in advance of their happening. In ...
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